All else equal, this would increase gasoline prices, which in most of the country have averaged $3 per gallon for the past year amid historically low levels of petroleum inventories (see chart). But Trump wants lower gasoline prices, which is why if the oil tariffs come at all, they will likely start slowly.

Oil prices eased on Friday with U.S. President Donald Trump expected to announce new tariffs against Canada and Mexico that will begin on March 1, according to sources familiar with the planning. Brent crude futures for March,